Monday, November 03, 2008

Thoughts On The Final Hours Before Election 2008

I feel like I've been holding my breath for the last couple weeks. Now, just to be clear, I have always been confident for the past several weeks that Obama was ahead of McCain, and that "if the election were to be held today" that Obama would win. What I have always been nervous about though was some last-second "October Surprise" (or November Surprise), that somehow turned the tables. At this point, we are at around noon on the day before election day and the time for a big surprise, planned or otherwise, is rapidly running out. It may be too late even if there was one, therefore I am increasingly confident.

I am really looking forward to volunteering for the Obama campaign tomorrow! I have never done that before, and it should be an experience to remember. This is a year of firsts for me for politics. I also gave $100 to the campaign several weeks ago, which is a first for me as well.

My final prediction is Obama wins 311 electoral votes, including all Kerry and/or Gore states, plus VA, CO, OH, and NV. I think the rest of the red states will all go barely to McCain. If there is one of the remaining states that I think we have a decent shot at, it's Florida. If there's one we may lose from the list, it's OH. I don't understand the Republican plans to take PA. That's a play by necessity due to scarce resources. PA won't take long to call for Obama. I also think Obama will win 51.2 percent of the popular vote, which would put him at about 3.5% more than McCain at 47.7 percent, about a point more margin than Bush's margin in 2004.

I want to hear your predictions. What are your predictions for the popular vote and the electoral vote? More importantly, WHY do you think it will be the result?

5 comments:

Dan said...

I predict that we will have a crappy President. Either way I win.

I also predict that neither candidate will actually push through the agenda items that they promised. Ironically, next cycle the people will fall for it all over again.

Rightwingsnarkle said...

I predict Mad Jack falls short of 200 EV's. Total FAIL.

25 House pickups, 57 senate seats (not counting Lieberman, who needs to have his ass kicked out of the caucus).

I also predict wingnut head explosions, along with vain howls of fraud.

Good luck volunteering tomorrow, Bring your video camera.

And be sure to check out tonight's special Election Eve Edition of Dirty Fucking Hippie YouTube Monday.

Erik Grow said...

I'll bring it, but I'm not sure exactly where I'm allowed to film! I don't know if my polling place or the Obama campaign location will allow it. I can take vids of outside at the very least.

I think your Senate seat tally is about right. I see CO, NM, AK, VA, NH, NC, and OR going to us. I don't think we'll quite get MN. That would be 57 without Lieberman, as you indicated. Not sure how that will turn out with Joe the McCain Supporter. I think it might be an opportunity to make the tent bigger, but backing the other presidential contender, I don't know.

DAVE BONES said...

I can't see president Obama. Hopefully I will tomorrow.

Erik Grow said...

I hope so too dave bones. I'm growing increasingly confident, despite the ridiculous cherry-picking of polls over at Spark's. That is so intellectually dishonest, picking one poll and ignoring others. The information is out there, yet so many are willing to ignore it in favor of what they would RATHER believe.