Monday, October 13, 2008

Polls Are Only Accurate When You Agree With Them

This sounds silly, right? Yes, of course it is, yet this is a frequently held belief, especially in conservative Republican circles. Now, I understand that with conservatives that there is an undercurrent of mistrust of science. These are often the same people that support teaching "intelligent design" in schools (ruled to be warmed-over creationism by a Bush-appointed judge). These are often the same people that also believe that homosexuality can be "cured". Any time I point out that Obama is currently ahead in the polls, they say, "Yes, Kerry was ahead too, but he lost." No, for the tenth time, he was not ahead. Some exit polls had him ahead the day of the election, but those were instant exit polls that were poorly sampled, and they were wrong. The regular polls taken before the election showed Bush with a slight lead. Below are two polls, both from One is Kerry on this day in 2004, and the other is Obama today. The two are not even close. Anyone can cherry-pick a poll that shows the result that they like, but when you take a poll of polls, the end result of polling is that it is very accurate. Dark blue is 10% or more margin for the Democrat, lighter blue is 5% or more for the Dem, white with a blue border is less than 5% for the Dem, and all white is a tie. The red states work the same for Republicans.

Kerry on 10/13/04 - 228 electoral votes, 291 for Bush, 19 tied:

Obama on 10/13/08 - 346 electoral votes, 181 for McCain, 11 tied:


Rightwingsnarkle said...

Ah, ha ha ha ha.

Obama leads McStain 53-29.

McCain's campaign strategy may be hurting hurt him: Twenty-one percent of voters say their opinion of the Republican has changed for the worse in the last few weeks. The top two reasons cited for the change of heart are McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate.

We have wingnuts to thank for being the ones to so willingly hammer the nails into the repubs' coffin.

Rightwingsnarkle said...

Oops. 53-39.

McStain will be at 29 soon enough, at which point Obama will hit 63.

DAVE BONES said...

So where there is water people are more liberal and the middle is the kingdom of the red neck? Is that something to do with the water?

Erik Grow said...

Hah! Well, the center of the country and the southeast tends to be quite conservative (Florida is an aberration because it's full of transplanted northerners, so it's a swing state). These same areas are more religious, and tend to be a bit less educated and a bit poorer. Texas is by far the largest state that votes reliably Republican.

Rightwingsnarkle said...

People at fatter in the red states. Also dumber.

Dumb and fat, two of the more visible attributes of your garden variety wingnut.